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Bronx Baseball Bat & Ball Set

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Koriat A, Lichtenstein S, & Fischhoff B (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107–118. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.6.2.107 [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Keren G (1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica, 67, 95–119. doi: 10.1016/0001-6918(88)90007-8 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Mata A, & Ferreira MB (2018). Response: Commentary: Seeing the conflict: an attentional account of reasoning errors. Frontiers in Psychology, 9, 24. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00024 [ PMC free article] [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Klayman J, Soll JB, González-Vallejo C, & Barlas S (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216–247. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1999.2847 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar]

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Thousands of students from MIT, Harvard, and Princeton had been put through the quiz, and you’d think that anyone in these prestigious universities would be able to solve this problem with an unerring ease. Not so fast. It turned out that more than 50% responded with the knee-jerk—incorrect—answer. The two systems that led to the choices. Newell BR, & Shanks DR (2014). Unconscious influences on decision making: A critical review. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 37, 1–19. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X12003214 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar]

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For the second and third samples, nine simple math problems were included between the experimental questions and the memory questions to serve as interference to limit recall and recognition based on working memory (see the Supplemental Materials). Neither math problems nor any other activity occurred between the De Neys et al. (2013) experimental and the memory questions for the first sample. Specifically, we started by testing 126 MTurk participants and then examined their data. We did not have a precise stopping rule for the sample size, but we decided from the outset to pause data collection after examining the data from an initial sample of MTurk participants. We noted poor memory performance by these initial participants. On the basis of our observations, we tested two additional samples of participants (one from MTurk and one from UCB), each approximately the same size as the initial sample (128 participants), and gave them the math problems to create interference. Faul F, Erdfelder E, Lang A-G, & Buchner A (2007). G* Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Behavior Research Methods, 39, 175–191. doi: 10.3758/BF03193146 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Bourgeois-Gironde S, & Vanderhenst J-B (2009). How to open the door to System 2: Debiasing the Bat and Ball problem. In Watanabe S, Bloisdell AP, Huber L, & Young A (Eds.), Rational animals, irrational humans (pp. 235–252). Tokyo: Keio University Press. [ Google Scholar]

The two systems that led to the choices.

Soll JB (1996). Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 117–137. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1996.0011 [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Campitelli G, & Gerrans P (2014). Does the cognitive reflection test measure cognitive reflection? A mathematical modeling approach. Memory & Cognition, 42, 434–447. doi: 10.3758/s13421-013-0367-9 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Mata A, Schubert A-L, & Ferreira MB (2014). The role of language comprehension in reasoning: How “good-enough” representations induce biases. Cognition, 133, 457–463. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2014.07.011 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] De Neys W, & Bonnefon J-F (2013). The ‘whys’ and ‘whens’ of individual differences in thinking biases. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 17, 172–178. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2013.02.001 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar]

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